Daily Market Update

Updated on September 28, 2020 10:06:06 AM EDT
Monday’s bond market has opened fairly flat with little to drive trading this morning other than sizable stock gains. The major stock indexes are starting the new week in rally mode, pushing the Dow up 351 points and the Nasdaq up 129 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (0.65%), but strength late Friday should still allow this morning’s mortgage rates to be slightly lower than Friday’s early pricing.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release this morning, the only day of the week without at least a single item. The rest of the week brings us eight monthly and quarterly economic reports for the markets to digest with two of them much more important than the others. In addition to the data, there are also a high number of speaking engagements by Federal Reserve members that may draw attention.

September's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will start this week’s calendar at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This Conference Board index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a rise in confidence from August's reading, indicating that consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than last month. This means they are more likely to make a large purchase in the near future. Because consumer spending makes up almost 70% of the U.S. economy, good news for rates would be a decline. Analysts are calling for a reading of approximately 88.5, up from August's 84.8. The smaller the reading, the better the news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Overall, Friday is the most important day for mortgage rates due to the almighty Employment report. Thursday should also be very active with weekly unemployment figures in addition to Personal Income & Outlays and the ISM manufacturing index all set for release. The two big reports scheduled can be market movers, meaning those are days that mortgage rates could drop noticeably or spike higher. We also have the first Presidential Debate tomorrow evening, although it likely will be a non-factor for Wednesday’s rates. Keep in mind that it is prudent to watch the markets closely anytime you are floating an interest rate and closing in the near future, but this is especially true when there are so many events scheduled that are relevant to mortgage rates such as this week.


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