Daily Market Update

Updated on February 26, 2021 10:07:49 AM EST
Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, recovering a good portion of yet another afternoon sell-off in mortgage securities yesterday. Stocks are mixed during early trading with the Dow down 198 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32 (1.49%), but Thursday’s afternoon losses are going to cause this morning’s mortgage rates to be higher than yesterday’s early pricing by approximately.125 - .250 of a discount point. As bonds tanked, many lenders revised pricing higher before closing. If you did see an intraday increase Thursday afternoon, you should see a noticeable improvement in this morning’s pricing.

January's Personal Income and Outlays report was posted at 8:30 AM ET, revealing a 10.0% spike in income and a 2.4% rise in spending. The income jump is being attributed to economic stimulus payments that went out and not an organic rise in wages. Spending was close to forecasts, but it also is being skewed by those stimulus payments being spent. The important inflation within the data, that the Fed watches closely, nearly matched expectations. Generally speaking, the report is neutral for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also posted this morning was the University of Michigan's revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for February. It came in at 76.8, slightly exceeding forecasts, but still down from the previous estimate. This means surveyed consumers were not as confident in their financial situations as they were last month. Because waning confidence is considered to be an indicator or softer consumer spending numbers in the near future, we can label this report as neutral to slightly favorable for rates.

Next week does not have a large number of economic reports or other events scheduled that are expected to influence rates. However, most of the small batch are considered to be important and a couple are extremely relevant to the financial and mortgage markets. The week starts with one of those key reports, the ISM manufacturing index, late Monday morning and closes with the almighty monthly Employment report Friday. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

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