Daily Market Update

Updated on November 23, 2020 10:06:42 AM EST
Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, due partly to early stock strength. The major stock indexes are reacting to more vaccine news, pushing the Dow up 235 points and the Nasdaq up 8 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (0.85%), which should cause this morning’s mortgage rates to be approximately .125 of a discount point higher than Friday’s early pricing.

There is no relevant economic data set for release today, but we do have the first of this week’s two Treasury auctions that may influence mortgage rates taking place. Results of the 5-year Treasury Note auction will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. Good news for rates would be a strong demand for the securities that should help boost the broader bond market. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, meaning if there is a reaction to the sale, it will come during early afternoon trading.

The rest of this holiday-shortened week brings us six monthly or quarterly economic reports for the markets to digest in addition to the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. Despite the holiday, it still should be a very active week for the markets and mortgage rates.

November's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is the first economic data of the week, scheduled for 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This Conference Board index helps us track consumer willingness to spend. If a consumer's confidence in their own financial and employment situation is strong, analysts believe that they are more apt to make larger purchases in the near future, fueling economic growth. This is important because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and strength in it makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. Analysts are expecting to see a decline in confidence from last month's level, meaning surveyed consumers were a less optimistic about their own financial situations this month than they were last month. A weaker reading than the 96.5 that is expected would be good news for mortgage rates, while a stronger reading could push mortgage rates higher tomorrow.

Also tomorrow is the 7-year Treasury Note auction. As with today’s sale, a strong demand from investors would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage pricing. Results of this sale will also be posted at 1:00 PM ET.

Overall, I am expecting Wednesday to be the busiest day for the bond market and mortgage rates with weekly unemployment claims, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and five monthly or quarterly economic reports all set for release. The calmest day will most likely be Friday as many traders will be home for the long weekend rather than in the office working.


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